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The Five Reasons MGS 5 Won't Be at E3
By Cyril Lachel     |   Posted on May 22, 2009   |   Episode 73 (Show Archive)  

            
Lately it seems like the only thing people are talking about is Metal Gear Solid 5. Ever famed game developer Hideo Kojima (best known for his Metal Gear Solid and Zone of the Enders franchises) unleashed his newest website; people have been filling up the message boards with their predictions. The website (pictured right) is understandably cryptic, it offers nothing more than an open field, lightning clouds and what looks like the number "5". With only that information, gamers all across the world started to get excited about what was clearly an advertisement for Metal Gear Solid 5. And why not get excited? After all, this is clearly an advertisement for Solid Snake's next outing, right?

Not so fast fellow snake eaters. While it's easy to understand why somebody might conclude that this page is hinting at Metal Gear Solid 5, I'm here to tell you that it is exactly the opposite. There is no way that this is an advertisement for Metal Gear Solid 5 ... and I have proof to back it up. With only two weeks to go before we finally learn the truth about this website, I thought I would make a reasoned argument for why this simply cannot be Metal Gear Solid 5. Mark my words on this, because we're about to look at The 5 Reasons MGS 5 Won't Be Announced at E3!

Because It's Not a Five At All
You heard me. That character you see on the website isn't a number at all, but rather the letter "S". If you're

Hey, that "S" looks a lot like a "5"!!
going to buy into any of my theories then it's important that we get this out of the way early. Sure, it looks like a five. Heck, it's even using the same font that Kojima used to promote Metal Gear Sold 2, 3 and even 4. But look again, because it also looks like an "S" in that font. Don't believe me, have a look to the right and check out the promotional pamphlet I picked up at E3 years ago for Metal Gear Solid 4. Notice anything odd about it? When I see the "S" in the "MGS," I can't help but be reminded of this website's letter/number. Coincidence? I think not.

The other reason I bring up the whole "S" thing is because it will make this whole article a lot easier to swallow. I don't ask you to substitute my judgment for yours, but I do hope that you'll keep an open mind. The one thing I know for sure is that when it comes to the font he uses to promote Metal Gear Solid games, it's hard to differentiate between an "S" and a"5". As far as I'm concerned its inconclusive, so if you're one of those fanboys hyperventilating about how this is "obviously" Metal Gear Solid 4, then sit down and get a grip. Because after you read what I have to say you are going to have a huge exclamation point over your head. I guarantee it!

Snatcher 3 Isn't Going to Make Itself
In interview after interview, Hideo Kojima claims that he's done with the Metal Gear Solid franchise. Granted, he says that every time, but after Metal Gear Solid 4 I might actually

If Hideo Kojima doesn't deliver Stalker 3 soon, then I don't know what will happen!
believe him this time. Guns of the Patriots was not only a must-own PlayStation 3 game, but also one of the few sequels that seems to put everything to rest. It answers practically every question you could possibly have, all in the name of tying up loose ends. The game concludes in a satisfying way that gives off the impression that maybe Hideo is finally done with the series. And even if he's not, he's certainly done for now.

Lately he's been talking a lot about some of his other franchises, including Boktai, Zone of the Enders and even Snatcher. If that character is actually an "S", then it stands to reason that it could possibly be a Snatcher sequel. And who says that it can't be the subtitle to a new Zone of the Enders game? It could also be a long-awaited sequel to Boktai, a game that required the sunlight to play. Those dark clouds sure would make Boktai hard to play. The truth is, it's just as likely that the "S" represents an original IP, something we would have never guessed. Still, Hideo and Suda51 have already teamed up to work on a Snatcher radio play, why not extend this project into the video game world?

Metal Gear Solid 4 Has Only Been Released Once
If there's one thing you can rely on, it's that Konami will find a way to release a Metal Gear Solid game more than once. With the exception of the recently released Metal Gear Solid 4, every Metal Gear Solid

I don't know what this new Metal Gear Solid 4 re-release will be called, but I can guarantee that it will start with a "SUB"!
entry has had one major re-release. The first Metal Gear Solid had the VR Missions (released both separate and as part of the original game, depending on where you lived), Metal Gear Solid 2 had Substance and Metal Gear Solid 3 had Subsistence. Not only did these re-releases offer the original game, but they also featured a plethora of cool side-missions, mini-games and extra videos to watch. In the case of Subsistence, the camera perspective was completely changed, giving fans more than enough incentive to buy the game again.

Yet Metal Gear Solid 4 has only been released once. In fact, the game is so new that if you go to the local game store you'll still find it for the full $60 asking price. For that reason alone, it seems like a bad time to announce Metal Gear Solid 5. It's much more likely that this is the Metal Gear Solid 4 equivalent to Subsistence, adding new modes and maybe even new playable characters. What's more, this theory may also fit into the rumors that Konami is about to announce a port of Metal Gear Solid 4 for the Xbox 360. I say that a Substance-like expansion pack (or full fledge re-release) is much more likely than a Metal Gear Solid 5 announcement. I don't know what they are going to call it, but I guarantee that it's going to start with the letter "S".

Hideo Kojima Is Not This Predictable
If you've been following Hideo Kojima's career, then you already know that he's not a predictable fellow. This is a guy who gets great satisfaction out of tricking his unsuspecting

"What's that? What do you mean nobody likes me?"
audience, so why would he suddenly decide to become boring and predictable? Thinking that this is Metal Gear Solid 5 is too easy, it's just the obvious choice. But it can't be, that's not the way he likes to go about things. This site is intended to be a cryptic hint, yet most people seem to think that he gave it all away with that supposed "5". It simply can't be that obvious.

Hideo Kojima knows what you're going to think the moment you see that open field and what looks like the number five. He knows that you're going to see those lightning clouds and immediately think that this is going to be a game about Raiden (which means thunder and lightning in Japanese). He's done this once before ... complete with Raiden. For months gamers thought that Metal Gear Solid 2 was going to be another epic adventure starring Solid Snake. However, not even an hour in the main character changes from Snake to Raiden, an annoying lead character that was almost universally panned. Could Kojima be setting you up for yet another surprise? Expect the unexpected when it comes to Hideo Kojima!

The Timing Is All Wrong
Oddly enough, the most damning piece of information may be nothing more than the timing of the announcement. They say that history repeats itself, so it stands to reason that we can look back at the past announcements to figure out if this is (or isn't) Metal Gear

See, see, see ... Metal Gear Solid 5 is clearly real because I have this cover art!
Solid 5. Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty was announced in 2000, two years after the release of the original game. Metal Gear Solid 3 was announced in 2003, two years after the release of the second game. It seems clear that Kojima and his team like to have at least a two year gap between game and announcement.

The idea was sound: Take a You Don't Know But even if you don't want to look that far back, all you have to do is look at the business side of things logically. Metal Gear Solid 4 isn't even a year old, it is still retailing at full price just about everywhere. So given this information, why would Konami decide to announce a new sequel so close to the launch of the last game? Konami invested millions of dollars into the project, announcing a fifth installment would fly in the face of that investment. That's not to say that we won't see another Metal Gear Solid sequel (we undoubtedly will), but it won't be announced at this year's E3. Judging by how long it took Kojima and team to craft 2008's Guns of the Patriots, I wouldn't expect to know much about a sequel for another year or two. Mark me words, Metal Gear Solid 5 is not going to be announced next month.
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